Monday, October 26, 2015

Post Week 7 NFL Contender Rankings

1.  The Patriots locked the top spot in the power rankings up this week.  Barring a serious injury, I do not see how they will not claim this spot the rest of the season.  They beat a very good Jets team, even with that depleted offensive line.  Their defense, which everyone questioned stepped up, they played much better than I expected.

2.  The Packers were off this week, but they still hold the two spot.  Hopefully that off week helped their health.  They remind me of UCLA this year, so talented but injury luck is not on their side.  But they still have the best Quarterback in the league.  As long as he is there, they are a top team in the NFL.  That defense did concern me against the Chargers, but I believe this was because they were on the field so much.

3. The Bengals are good!  Andy Dalton seems to have figured it out, all the talent surrounding him seems to help.  Rodgers must be pretty jealous.  It will be interesting to see how the Bengals do from now on.  They play the Broncos down the road, but their schedule is extremely easy.  Easily could be 12-4 or 13-3.

4.  The Panthers!  They are good, Cam is the MVP of the season so far.  That defense is scary good, just like the Broncos.  They will be able to stay in every game.  I do not think they will be blowing many teams out, but I would not want to play them in playoffs.

5.  The Broncos with Matt Hasselback? with Johnny Manziel?  with Brock Osweiler? Geno Smith?  MAKE A TRADE

5a.  The Cardinals.  That Steelers game worries me but these guys are still extremely talented.  They will go as far as Palmer can take them.  They have all the talent in the world, it shocked me that they lost to the Steelers.

6.  The Jets? I admit, I was not a huge Jets believer.  But they were able to hold their own against the best team in the NFL.  This defense should be able to keep them in every single game, and Fitzpatrick seems like an okay quarterback.

7.  The Broncos with Peyton Manning.  I do not understand how the Broncos believe that they can win a super bowl with Manning.  Go out make a move, start Osweiler.  Start anyone at quarterback who defenses are actually scared of.  Make Peyton your offensive coordinator, he can do his audibles from the sideline (kidding).  But really nobody respects this offense.  But their DEFENSE is amazing, and is a super bowl caliber defense.

HUGE DROPOFF

8. The Rams. There are so many teams who could be amazing with a decent qb. But I really like this team especially with gurley. This defense is really good, as long as the foles doesn't kill them they can be a very sneaky team.

9.   The Falcons.  This may surprise some people.  But I really do not think the Falcons are that good, they have trailed entering the 4th quarter in every game but one.   They also have not played any very good teams.  I cannot give them respect until they beat some good teams.

10.  The Dolphins?  This team is very talented, it seems like they may have figured it out.  I am excited to see how they play the Patriots this week.

11.   The Steelers, is this the same defense that played week 1?  When Big Ben gets back this offense immediately jumps back into top 5 in the league.  The Steelers, Jets, Dolphins will each be fighting for those last two wildcard spots.  It is too bad none of them play in the AFC South.


12. .  The Giants, they will win the NFC East.  The Cowboys do not have Romo for four more weeks, the Giants really need to increase their lead here.

13. The Cowboys, if this team can maybe win 2 of these next 4 games they should win their division. Then romo comes back and they could be a sneaky good team.




Thursday, October 15, 2015

Week 6 NFL picks ATS, Derek Abramson

I went 9-4-1 in week 5.  The two games I was not very confident about I lost.  Was 3-1-1 in my super 5 picks.  And won both my teasers.  These weeks games are tough to pick.


FALCONS -4 at Saints
  • Does Vegas know something that I do not know?  This is a bottom of the pack team vs a top of the pack team.  I love the Falcons here, it does not phase me that this is in New Orleans.  Brandon Weeden almost went into New Orleans and won.  I do not think the Saints will be able to stop the Falcons on offense.  More importantly they wont be able to keep up with the Falcons offensively.  
BRONCOS -5 at Browns
  • Again the Browns are a trendy pick here.  But I am not going to bet against the Broncos defense.  They are scary.  Peyton is bad, but this Browns defense is bad as well.  I like the better team here, not that confident in this pick.  
CARDINALS -3.5 at Steelers
  • The Cardinals traveling across country does not scare me.  Big Ben playing does not scare me as well.  The Cardinals have the offense to keep up with the Steelers.  Their defense is miles above the Steelers defense.  I am pretty confident about this pick here
Chiefs vs VIKINGS -4 
  •  I was very wrong last week, the Chiefs are horrible!  The Vikings are not a bad team, I do not take into effect their horrible loss to t he 49ers.  I think this will be an easy cover against the Chiefs, especially at home. 
REDSKINS +6 vs Jets
  • People are disrespecting the Redskins here.  Their defense is legit, they shut down the mighty Falcons offense.  The Jets are not six points than many teams.  This is going to be a low scoring affair, two weak defenses.  Hopefully a Kirk Cousins pick 6 does not kill me here.  This is one of my favorite picks. 
DOLPHINS +2 vs Titans 
  • The Titans are getting a lot of respect in this game.  The Dolphins are a very talented team, I think they will pull it together.  If they win this week and win the next week they are right back in the wildcard hunt.   
Chargers vs PACKERS -10.5
  • All of me wants to go with the Chargers here.  This line is so big and the Packers offense has really been struggling lately.  Aaron Rodgers at home vs a horrible team.  Will have to go with Rodgers again, even though this line is huge. 
Panthers vs SEAHAWKS -7
  • Are the Panthers even good?  They beat the four worst teams in the league (Saints with McCown).  The Seahawks do scare me, they are not the same caliber team that they were the last two years.  I will take the Seahawks at home, Cam Newton and his no named offense will not be able to score on that defense.  
RAVENS -2.5 vs 49ers 
  • Not a fan of this game.  Two bad teams.  I can never bet on Kap, he is terrible.  The Ravens will find a way to pull this one out. 
BEARS +3 vs Lions
  • I'll take the better team giving points here.  The Bears may finally be getting all their offensive weapons back and the Lions are just horrible.  
BENGALS -3.5 vs Bills
  • Are we sure the Bills are good?  McCoy and Watkins are supposed to return by Tyrod is now dealing with a knee injury.  I will take the Bengals here.  
GIANTS +4 vs Eagles
  • The Eagles are a favorite???? The Giants are good, Eli did kill me last week.  My fear is that the Eagles figure their offense out against the Giants bad pass defense.  
PATRIOTS -9.5 vs Colts
  • Do not know if I will bet against the Patriots all year.  Love this game, Tom Brady will be a very angry QB.  The Patriots could win by 50.  
Texans vs JAGUARS -1
  • another tough game.  I will take the Jaguars here.  The Texans are really bad. 
Super 5
  • Giants +4
  • Patrios -9.5
  • Redskins +6
  • Cardinals -3.5
  • Seahawks +7

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Week 5, NFL contenders, Derek Abramson

1. Patriots

  • Boy do the Patriots look good.  They have yet to be challenged all year.  Tom Brady picks defenses apart. The Oline showed some weakness last game, Brady was hit way more than he usually was.  

2. Packers

  • Just like the Patriots nobody has really challenged them all year.  They have the best QB in the NFL.  I do believe the Packers have some true problems, the final score of the Rams game does not tell the full story.  But their offense has taken a hit with the losses of Nelson and Adams, and Cobb does not seem 100%.  This team cannot afford any more injuries.  We will find out how good the Packers are when they face Denver.  

3. Bengals

  • I think everyone can agree, the Bengals are legit.  As long as Dalton has time to throw this team will be scary, tons of weapons on offense.  Defense came up huge last weekend, which allowed the Bengals to come back.  The knock on them is Andy Dalton is their QB, but how many more big wins will it take for people to stop saying this?

4. Cardinals

  • As long as Carson Palmer stays healthy I really like this team, they are a very talented group.  I think that Rams loss was a fluke game, if Carson makes one good throw on that last 4th down play they probably win the game.  

5.  Broncos

  • It is too bad Peyton Manning could not pull one year good out.  He is horrible, I truly wonder if the Broncos should go and trade for Matt Hasselback.  But hey, they are 5-0.  This defense is the best in the NFL and will keep the Broncos in every single game.  
6a. Falcons

  • Have to give the Falcons some credit, they are undefeated.  Their schedule has been extremely easy even though I do believe that the Giants and Redskins are better than people think.  If Julio goes down I do not really know what this team will become.  But while he is healthy their offense is as scary as any.  It also helps they play in a really easy division. 

6b. Giants

  • I like the Giants, they could easily be 5-0 on the year.  Their defense is a little suspect, somehow they allowed the horrible Colin Kap to go off on them.  But at the end of the day, they got a win.  I would not want to play this team in the playoffs, would much rather play the Falcons. 

After these teams I believe there is a huge drop-off.  Maybe if Luck starts to play better and that defense improves the Colts can find there way on this list.

Or if the Seahawks remarkably turn things around, but I do not believe they will.  That team has serious problems on the offensive line, and that defense allowed the Bengals to come back from a huge deficit.  I am not one of those who believes that the Seahawks will just turn a switch on and make another super bowl run.

The Jets and Rams have Fitzpatrick and Foles at QB and that will be their downfall.  Although I love both their defenses.

The Panthers are 4-0 but probably beat the four worst teams in the league, eventually that wide receiver depth is going to hurt them.  If they can beat the Seahawks this week then I would include them in the contender conversation.

 A sneaky team in the future is the Steelers, when Big Ben returns that offense is going to be extremely scary and should keep them in every game.  If the Steelers defense can pick it up they will be a tough playoff matchup.

The Bills could be a sneaky team as well, but they need to stay healthy.  Their offense has taken a huge hit with Watkins, McCoy, and Williams being out.




Saturday, October 10, 2015

Week 5 NFL picks, Bovada odds, Derek Abramson

COLTS +5 at Texans

  • The Texans are horrible, how a Ryan Mallet led team is favored over any team in the league blows my mind.  Bad QB and bad defense, Easy pick here: Colts.  
BENGALS -3 vs Seahawks

  • Through the first four weeks do we know that Seattle is legit?  I feel like making them 3 point underdogs going across the country against a top four team in the NFL is generous.  I am picking the Bengals here and I am fairly confident about it.  They are legit.  
PACKERS -9 vs. Rams
  • This is a game that I am going to stay away from.  The Packers are going to win, but I think this spread is really high.  We do not quite know what the Rams are yet.  They have a great pass rush and showed some offensive firepower last week. The Cardinals are legit and the Rams went into their house and beat them.  After all that, Rodgers is at home. Never betting against him. 
SAINTS+5 vs Eagles
  • Very weird to me that the Eagles are favored by so much. Think the Saints cover here. Both teams are bad but 5 points is too much
Chiefs +9 vs Bears
  • Just like I believe the Seahawks are being given more credit then deserved, I think that the Chiefs are getting less credit than deserved.  They lost by ten points to two of the top 4 teams in the NFL, and really should have won that broncos game.  The Bears are horrible, I'll take the chiefs here.  
REDSKINS +8 vs Falcons
  • I do not believe that the Redskins are as bad as people think they are.  The Giants are a good team and they played them tough and they beat a good Rams team.  8 points is a lot to give here, especially with that Redskin defense.  
BROWNS +7 vs Ravens
  • The Ravens have played in four games this season that could have gone either way.  Until they show me that they are a legit team, I am never going to take them favored by a touchdown.  
TENN +3 vs Bills
  • The bills have nobody on offense this week besides Tyrod Taylor.  Are the Bills that good?  Their two wins have come against the Dolphins and Colts.  I will take the home team here.  
JAGUARS +3 at Buccaners
  • This game screams stay away from.  Two horrible teams, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, who knows what can happen.  I will take the points here, the Jaguars are a scrappy team.  
CARDINALS -3 vs lions
  • The lions offense is horrendous and I do not see it getting much better this week.  Their defense could keep them in the game but I do not believe that will be enough.  Lets not forget that the Cardinals are a very good football team.  
PATRIOTS -10 at Cowboys
  • 10 points is a lot, but right now I cannot bet against the Patriots.  Especially vs the Brandon Weeden led Cowboys.  I think this really comes down to how long the Patriots let the starters play.  I will never bet on Brandon Weeden.  
BRONCOS -5 at Raiders
  • The Raiders are everyones popular upset of the week.  I know Peyton Manning is horrible but come on guys.  The Broncos are going to win.  That defense will keep them in every game and I believe that Manning and his receivers will do enough to get the win.  I hate betting on Peyton Manning this year, but I cannot bet on a team who just lost to the Chicago Bears.  
GIANTS -7 vs 49ers
  • This is by far my favorite game of the week.  The Giants are good, I would pick them to win the NFC east.  The 49ers are horrible and have to travel cross country for this one.  This is a great teaser, I do not see any way the 49ers win.  But hey hopefully Eli Manning does not let me down
STEELERS-3 vs Chargers
  • I like the Steelers here.  I do not believe that the Chargers are a good team.  Vick gets extra days to prepare for this one, the Steelers offense will not be as bad as it was against the Ravens.  
Super 5 picks

  • Colts
  • Bengals 
  • Giants
  • Cardinals
  • Patriots 

Bets this week

  • 7 point Teasers
    • Patriots, Giants, Broncos
    • Patriots, Falcons
  • Parley
    • Bengals, Cardinals, Giants

Thursday, October 8, 2015

Thursday Night Football, Colts Texans Derek Abramson

Coming into the game the Colts needed their defense to step up, they will be the ones to win or lose this game. They played as well as they could possibly play until the end of the half.  The Colts allowed the Texans to do whatever they want on their first drive (bailed out by interception).  But for the rest of the half they were shut down.  They shut the Texans running game down, which shuts their passing attack down as well.  Everything was going perfect for this defense till the end of the half where they allowed a hail mary! Everything went downhill for the Colts defense after allowing this end of first half drive.  I believe the Texans should have never gotten the ball at the end of the half, but I will get to that later.  The second half was not so great for the Colts.  The Texans have two players on their team who you say they are not beating me this week, Deandre Hopkins and Arian Foster, but somehow they always seems to be open on passing plays.  Hopkins 11 catches for 169 and Foster 9 for 77 accounted for 68% of the Texans receiving yards.  Finally when the Colts needed a big stop their defense stepped up.  They double teamed Foster and Hopkins and the Texans had nowhere to go!  Overall the Colts played a half of great defense and that was enough for them to get the win.

The Colts offense stepped up big time tonight, this all started with Frank Gore.  After a tough first four weeks for Gore, he was able to whatever he wanted against this Texans defense, finishing with 22 carries for 98 yards and 1 TD.  The offensive line, which was horrible all season, opened up huge holes for Gore all night.  The Colts were able to get positive yards on most downs which set things up nicely for Hasselback.  Hasselback played a perfect game of football.  The Colts game plan combined with the Texans defense made life easy on Hasselback all night.  The play calling put him in 2nd and shorts and 3rd and shorts all night.  They called lots of quick throws and rolled him out when necessary, he was rarely pressured all game.  The one bad throw he made all week was bailed out by a penalty on the Texans defense.

Coming into the game, this was the Texans game to lose.  No Andrew Luck and Hasselback did not get to practice all week.  Hasselback was even quoted before game saying he did not know if he could make it through 4 quarters.  The Texans really needed their defense to finally step up, the Texans do not have the offense to win shootout games.  This would be the final test for the Texans defense, if the Colts gash them, then they cannot be an elite defense.

I was not impressed with this Texans defense the entire game.  Everyone likes to put all the blame on JJ Watt but I believe that is unfair. JJ Watt gets double teamed, chipped, or the Colts just run the offense away from him.  Even when he is matched up one on one he is not winning those match ups, I think this has a lot to do with how hard he has to work while going up against those double teams.  With JJ Watt getting double and triple teamed you would think this would lead to more sacks and tackles by the other Texans.  This does not seem to be the case, nobody is steeping up and making plays for this defense.   The Colts came into the game with a backup qb and a running attack which has been subpar this year.  The Colts passing attack and rushing attack destroyed the Texans.  Everyone knows how bad the Indianapolis oline is and they were able to open huge holes up each play for Gore and keep the Texans pass rush away from Hasselback.  That says something about the Texans defense. On top of their horrible defense they committed penalties on key drives that gave the colts first downs.  These penalties led to ten points by the Colts

The Texans finally got a full game from Arian Foster, although he left for a brief moment due to a concussion scare.  He takes so much pressure off of each QB, not only on the ground but through the air as well.  This made a huge difference all game, his 9 receptions for 77 yards shows this.  The Colts were able to stuff the box all game due to the fact the Texans have no receivers beside Hopkins so Foster was not too successful through the ground.  Unfortunately Foster still does not look like the elite RB he has been in the previous years, but he still is a hundred times better than any RB on that roster.  His conditioning must not be up to what it was in previous years, he came off the field a lot.  This was his first full game back, I believe he will be back to his elite self soon.

Outside of Foster and Hopkins this Texans offense is horrible.  Their QB situation is horrible, but they did find their starter tonight.  Unfortunately it was too little too late.  Hoyer is not going to come in and erase a huge deficit to win you a game, but he is a guy who is a serviceable QB and hopefully shouldn't lose too many games for you.  The Texans need to manage every game just like the Colts did.  They need to be a running team first, so that their QB's can make easy short throws and this will open up the play action game.  On their first drive its 2nd and 5 in plus territory, you need to run the ball here! Set up an easy 3rd down pass completion, but instead they throw  a fade, next play interception.  They started to set up easy throws for Hoyer in the second half by moving Hopkins all over the formation and letting Foster leak out.  Unfortunately he made the bad throw that his counterpart Hasselback did not make all night.

Matt Hasselback does not look like a 40 year old man.  This was about as perfect as you can ask your backup QB play, he did not make one mistake.  The Colts offensive gameplan was perfect, they made one mistake.  Which was at the end of the first half, they are up 10 on the road and get the ball back to start the 2nd half.  So why try and go get more points?  The Texan's offense was able to find some rhythm on that final drive of the half that the Colts should not have given them.  Outside of that I believe the Colts should gain some confidence from this game.  If they can run the ball when Luck returns that would be huge for them.

 I do not see how the Texans win any games this year with that defense.  Something needs to be figured out on that side of the ball because you cannot rely on the Texans offense to bail the defense out any game this year.  The Texans can come away happy that they finally found their starting QB for the rest of the year.  They also should be happy with how their offense looked with Foster.

Fantasy Analysis
If you are an Arian Foster or Deandre Hopkins owner you are a happy camper.  Foster touched the ball 28 times and Deandre Hopkins caught 11 of 14 targets.  Each will be elite options going forward, Hopkins could be a top three receiver rest of way.  He should average 14-20 targets a game! I do not believe anyone needs to own Jalen Strong, he got lucky on a hail mary and then the Colts decided not to cover him on one play.  It pains me to say this, but against the right defense, Brian Hoyer may be a streamable QB/sneaky DFS play, he threw for 263 and 1 TD's in one half (312 and 2 TD's with that hail mary).  The Texans have a favorable next three opponents the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Titans.

In terms of the Colts fantasy news I think the main thing that should be noted is do not overeact to Andre Johnson.  Revenge games are weird, I am sure the colts made it a big priority to get him involved.  Sell high on this guy if anyone in your league is dumb enough to take him!  Frank Gore finally looked like a decent fantasy option this week.  Hopefully he keeps this up next week against a bad Patriots run defense.  Hopefully we see a healthy Andrew Luck back for a shootout against the patriots.